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ARCHIVED - Tinsa report Spanish property value increase of 4.2 per cent in August
A slight upturn in the appreciation rate although the tendency remains towards stability
The leading Spanish property valuation firm Tinsa published its latest batch of monthly data regarding the market value of housing across the country on Monday morning, reporting that in the month of September the recent slow-down in the recovery in market prices across the country abated a little.
The year-on–year increase of 4.2 per cent was the eighth consecutive rise of under 5 per cent but comes after a year-on-year rise of only 2.8 per cent in August and is due largely to an increase in the Tinsa index of 1.8 per cent during the last month. The firm reports that the figure of 1,529 points is now 16.7 per cent higher than when the market bottomed out in February 2015 and 33 per cent lower than at the height of the boom in late 2007, having risen by just 2.4 per cent in the first nine months of 2019.
The staggered nature of the recovery can be seen in the breakdown of the figures, which shows that in Spain’s regional capitals and other large cities market values have risen by over 24 per cent in the last three and a half years, while elsewhere there are increases of 28.9 per cent in the Balearic and Canary Islands and 19.4 per cent in Mediterranean coastal areas, but only 5.9 per cent in the catch-all category of “other municipalities”. This might indicate that the locations where the recovery started latest are now those enjoying relative prosperity, whereas those where prices started to rise earliest have now reached a “ceiling”.
Particularly noticeable in the September figures is the sharp 9 per cent rise in the market value of properties in the Canaries and the Balearics, while elsewhere the increases are far more modest at just 2.4 per cent in “other municipalities”, 4.2 per cent in regional capitals and other large cities, 4 per cent in “metropolitan areas”, and 3.3 per cent in on the Mediterranean coast.
The latest bulletin also contains the monthly “market snapshot”, in which Tinsa highlight reasons to expect upward or downward movements in the value of homes in Spain, summarizing the following indicators among others:
- Sales figures: the latest monthly data (for August) show a sharp 20.8 per cent year-on-year decrease and an accumulated fall during the first 8 months of the year of 1.7 per cent.
- Building licences: the latest monthly data (for July) show a 1.7 per cent year-on-year decrease but a 10.4 cent rise over the first seven months of 2019.
- Mortgages granted: the latest monthly data (for July) show a 13.9 per cent year-on-year increase and a 10.7 per cent rise during the first 7 months of the year.
- Unemployment: the latest monthly data (for September) show a 3.83 per cent year-on-year decrease during the last 12 months.
- Euribor: the interest rate on which most mortgage repayments in Spain are calculated is currently at -0.339% (the average for the month of September), having risen from the new record low of the previous month.
In general these factors point to rather less certainty over the nature of future developments than has been the case for the last couple of years. National averages tend to distort the pictures in different areas of Spain, and there are regions where the outlook is rosy, but in overall terms it appears that the demand for housing across the country may have reached a natural peak, and that in consequence there is less upward pressure on market value.
The September figures for the islands appear to contradict this analysis, but across the country market value is now rising slowly and it seems that the Euribor rate is bouncing back slightly although it is expected to remain in negative territory for a good while yet. In short, the continuing recovery is looking a little more fragile than has been the case for the last couple of years.
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