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article_detailDate Published: 25/03/2020ARCHIVED ARTICLEARCHIVED - Aemet admits shortcomings in forecasting the storm which hit Murcia on Tuesday
Insufficient alerts were issued too late to allow emergency services to prepare
Aemet, the State meteorological agency of Spain, has admitted that its forecast modelling techniques were found wanting by the heavy storm which hit much of the Region of Murcia on Monday night and during Tuesday, stating that the data it had at its disposal did not warrant issuing warnings which would have allowed the emergency services more time to prepare.
Aemet had been forecasting rain in the Costa Cálida on Monday for a couple of days, but not in the quantities which materialized despite other forecasting sites being convinced that a torrential downpour was on the way. Those other sources were proved correct between Monday evening and Tuesday lunchtime, when the rain hammered down incessantly in a large area encompassing Mazarrón, the city of Murcia, Cartagena and the Mar Menor, bringing over 140 mm of rain to Cartagena.
(Image: an ECMWF forecast for Tuesday which was published five days before the storm)
In consequence the regional Aemet office is reported to have recognized that it could have done more to warn the authorities and the population as a whole in advance.
In Aemet’s defence it should be pointed out firstly that storms of this nature are often very hard to predict accurately in this part of the world, and secondly that the media which normally broadcast warnings for bad weather are currently concentrating mainly on the coronavirus emergency.
It is also worth bearing in mind that during the emergency there are fewer meteorological reconnaissance flights being operated, which Aemet has warned could affect the accuracy of its forecasts.
But on the other hand, the lockdown makes it even more vital than ever that additional factors such as the flooding which occurred in the Campo de Cartagena and on the coast of the Mar Menor on Tuesday should be known in advance by the emergency services, and it is a relief to report that no major incidents were reported.
Join the Murcia Weather Watch group on Facebook to keep up to date with all the latest forecasts and weather-related stories: https://www.facebook.com/groups/RegionOfMurciaWeatherWatch/.
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